Second Purchase Propensity Model

Overview

A customer's second purchase is an important milestone as it’s often the key event that differentiates loyal customers from one-time shoppers. Having insight into which customers are more or less likely to make this second purchase allows you to target your marketing strategy to drive loyalty.

The Second Purchase Prediction model generates a Second Purchase Likelihood Score ranging from 1-100 for each customer reflecting their purchase likelihood. You can use this score to create segments, run campaigns, or simply understand your customer base better by using this score.


Purchase Likelihood Scores and Purchase Likelihood Groups

The Second Purchase Prediction model gives each of your customers a Second Purchase Likelihood Score that ranges from 1-100. A higher score means a greater likelihood of purchasing making a second purchase.

Each customer is then assigned to a Second Purchase Likelihood Group based on their score:

  • High Second Purchase Likelihood: 76-100
  • Medium Second Purchase Likelihood: 51-75
  • Low Second Purchase Likelihood: 0-50

Second Purchase Likelihood Groups are an easy way to determine which segments of your audience to target in order to drive increased customer loyalty.


Where can I find my Second Purchase Likelihood Scores and Purchase Likelihood Groups?

  1. From the left navigation, expand Datasets then click Datasets.
  2. Search for and select your Simon Predict dataset.
  3. Click Run to see a sample set of your Purchase Likelihood Scores and Groups.


What do I do with my Purchase Likelihood Scores and Groups?

Your account manager will let you know when your models are trained, and your Simon Predict dataset is available.

Once your models are trained, and your Simon Predict dataset is available, there’s many ways you can power up your workflows within Simon by utilizing the Second Purchase Likelihood Scores and the insights they provide.

You have a few options:

Segment Builder

Use Purchase Likelihood Scores and Groups as a part of your segmentation logic in the Segment Builder.

  1. Create a new segment.
  2. From the properties tab, select the Simon Predict Second Purchase Group to choose a high/medium/low risk group or the Simon Predict Second Purchase Score contact filter.

Journeys

You can branch Journeys with Second Purchase Likelihood Scores to personalize your customers' experiences. For example, you can use the second purchase model to increase second-time purchasers via a "smart" welcome series promotion. You can branch your journeys by Second Purchase Propensity group and customize downstream content.

  • High Second Purchase Likelihood:
    • Surface Product Recommendations
    • Include small promotion
  • Medium Second Purchase Likelihood:
    • Surface Product Recommendations
    • Include rich promotion
  • Low Second Purchase Likelihood:
    • Surface Product Recommendations
    • Include rich promotion and take additional steps to satisfy the customer